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Image of forest fire. BeZero scientists explain rapid increase in global carbon emissions from forest fires

BeZero scientists explain rapid increase in global carbon emissions from forest fires

  • Geospatial and Earth Observation Team

  • BeZero scientists and collaborators used machine learning and satellite data to determine the sensitivity of forest ecoregions to key drivers of fire. This framework was used to explain the rapid increase in global forest fire emissions, as well as reasons underlying large regional variations.

  • Global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased by 60% in the last two decades, largely driven by the sensitivity of temperate and boreal forest fire regimes to climate change.

  • BeZero is incorporating these research findings into its industry-leading carbon ratings to inform fire risk for forest carbon projects across the world.

A new study by BeZero scientists Dr Niels Andela and Dr Dave van Wees, in collaboration with research partners at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, reveals the causes of increasing global forest fire activity, which has led to a 60% increase in carbon emissions from forest fires globally since the turn of the century.

Last year saw record-breaking emissions from forest fires in North America and this year fires rage in Bolivia and the southern Amazon, displacing thousands of people. Climate change has increased fire-favourable weather conditions in forests globally, but fire activity is also controlled by other factors. Untangling these influences is crucial for assessing risk to forest carbon projects around the world.

False-colour image showing recent fires in Bolivia

False-colour image showing recent fires in Bolivia. BeZero’s monitoring detected severe droughts in the region and fires affecting carbon projects under development. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

The research article, published this week in Science, uses machine learning and data from satellites to systematically group 414 forest ecoregions into ‘pyromes’, with each pyrome shown to have distinct sensitivities to key drivers of fire activity, such as fire-favourable weather, soil moisture, lightning, fuel properties, forest continuity, and land use.

Mapping how the influence of each of these factors varies geographically provides a framework for explaining the rapid increase in global fire emissions, as well as large regional variations in the observed trends.

The analysis shows significant increases in fire activity and carbon emissions in temperate and boreal forests, linked to extreme weather conditions under climate change. In 2023, fire emissions from Canadian boreal forests were over nine times the 2001-2022 average. However, temperate and boreal pyromes characterised by high rainfall were found to be more resilient to climate change, resulting in varying trends of fire emissions across these regions. 

Tropical and subtropical forests are more consistently sensitive to fire-favourable weather, but in some regions higher temperatures have been offset by increased rainfall, or sensitivities to other drivers are more dominant. Deforestation, forest degradation, and burning pastures are key drivers of annual carbon emissions from fire in the tropics. Forest clearing in the Brazilian Amazon peaked during the early 2000s, explaining some of the observed reduction in the contribution of tropical forest fire emissions over time.

Sensitivities to forest continuity are similarly nuanced; remoteness from developed areas can reduce fire risk by reducing exposure to anthropogenic sources of ignition, but it can also increase carbon losses from fire due to the lack of accessibility for fire suppression. On balance, remote forested areas are at reduced risk in the humid tropics, but at greater risk in subtropical forests and areas with active fire suppression, such as the USA.

Chart showing contributions to global carbon emissions from forest fires. Forest pyromes that are common in temperate and boreal regions (‘Extratropical’, red) have increasingly contributed to the rise in global emissions

Chart shows that forest pyromes that are common in temperate and boreal regions (‘Extratropical’, red) have increasingly contributed to the rise in global emissions, a trend that is linked to the sensitivity and exposure of these forests to climate change. Credit: adapted from Jones et al. / Science.

At BeZero, we are combining this framework with our near real-time monitoring systems to assess how evolving fire risk could impact, or be mitigated by, forest carbon projects around the world.

Investing in high-quality carbon credits can help to reduce fire risk globally by reducing the likelihood of fire-favourable weather linked to climate change. However, credit quality partly depends on the permanence of the carbon emissions avoided or removed by a project, which may itself be increasingly at risk from wildfire.

As demonstrated in the Science article, fire risk is nuanced and varies regionally. The impact on credit quality further depends on ecosystem recovery following fires, local mitigations by the project, commitment periods and project reporting, and the integrity of buffer pool or insurance mechanisms. Project-level carbon ratings, backed by cutting-edge science, are critical to understanding the likely climate benefit of any given credit.

The research published this week is the latest example of BeZero working with academic partners to advance scientific understanding and embedding those advances into carbon market infrastructure through our ratings and platform.


Photo credit: Stefan Doerr, Swansea University