A first look at VM0048: winners, losers, and the price to pay

Verra has released provisional deforestation risk maps that will define project baselines under VM0048 for four Brazilian states (Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia).

BeZero analysis shows for the first time that the transition to VM0048 will result in substantial reductions in credit issuance, bringing many project baselines closer to our independent, project-level dynamic baselines.

There remain limitations to the jurisdictional risk mapping, given local complexities in land governance and drivers of deforestation. Project-level assessment remains crucial.

More accurate baseline accounting is a winner for market confidence, while some projects could become financially unviable unless credit prices respond to higher integrity.

BeZero research shows the market is moving toward rewarding quality with price: on average each notch on the BeZero Carbon rating scale fetches 40% higher prices.