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Engineered carbon removals: data-driven insights on issuance risk

  • Francesco Melloni
    Project Finance Lead
  • Beata Luchanskaya
    Associate, Project Finance
  • Carbon Removal

Here are some key takeaways from the report

  • Drawing on BeZero's newly expanded issuance dataset for Engineered Carbon Removals, we find that these projects are materially under-delivering, issuing on average just a third of their forecasted credits - reflecting persistent challenges across a range of technologies.

  • Biochar dominates the landscape but continues to lag compared to more established project types, posting significantly lower issuance ratios than ARR projects at every stage of operations; nevertheless, the gap narrows as projects age, and the steady upward trend in issuance ratios over recent years points to gradual improvements as technologies and operations scale up.

  • Project selection is critical: the wide dispersion of issuance outcomes across maturity stages means sector-level trends can mask significant individual variation, making in-depth, project-specific execution and delivery risk assessments essential for buyers and investors.

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